Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle looks at the impact of three big news stories on the NFL betting lines for Super Bowl XLVII!

The NFL’s predominance as the biggest sport in North America was proven again in the past ten days. With March Madness at its height, the NHL playoffs looming and Tiger back in form in time for the Masters, the NFL dominated the media. Even though it’s the NFL off-season, pro football is still what people want to hear about most.

There were three big stories over the past ten days. Peyton Manning became a Denver Bronco, the New Orleans Saints were heavily punished for their bounty program, and Tim Tebow became a New York Jet.

In betting terms, there was an over-reaction, an under-reaction and no reaction at all.

Sports Interaction has cut its price on Denver winning the Super Bowl from 50/1 to 10/1. That’s quite some contraction, but it is completely in keeping with the public mood. Every book saw action on Denver once John Elway won Manning over – we had no option but to cut the price on Denver. Green Bay remains the favorite at 11/2, while the Patriots and Saints have drifted by half a point, to 15/2 and 8/1 respectively.

This is probably an over-reaction to the arrival of Manning. Football is a team game, and one guy doesn’t change it all around. Manning might find his receivers better than Tim Tebow or Kyle Orton did, but that doesn’t mean the receivers can catch the ball once Manning’s found them. That case is yet to be proved.

The fact the Saints’ line has moved the same amount as the Patriots’ suggests that the suspensions of Sean Payton and Gregg Williams over the bounty programs won’t make any difference to New Orleans’ title chances in the eyes of the public. Anyone who thinks a coach doesn’t make much difference should ask them what they think in San Francisco.

The 49ers are the same team that Mike Singletary had. Singletary couldn’t direct them but Jim Harbaugh could, and did. The head coach is the glue that holds a team together. The Saints could be in a for long and miserable 2012 in Sean Payton’s absence.

Finally, there’s the slightly mind-boggling move of Tim Tebow to the Jets. The Jets’ price remains static at 25/1 because people don’t know what they’re doing and have no faith that whatever it is they are doing will work.

If you sign Tim Tebow to your team that means you have to totally remodel your offense around Tebow’s skillset. Tebow is not a bit player; he’s the straw that stirs the drink. It’s not like he’s a guy you can ignore.

It makes no sense for the Jets to sign Mark Sanchez to more money and then bring in someone who will challenge for his job. Not because he wants to – Tebow is anything but locker-room poison – but because Sanchez is so very vulnerable. The Jets are an organisation in disarray and a poor bet for the Super Bowl at any price.